What could go wrong for a Thomson Reserve buyer

The other notes in this series work out what a Thomson Reserve buyer could make in a low, a middle and a high case. This note looks at the ways a buyer could end up worse off than the middle case, and how far each has gone before near here: prices falling, interest rates rising, the launch price landing high, competing with other owners at TOP, and rent falling.

Thomson Reserve's Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP), when the keys are handed over, is expected on 28 February 2031.

What is in this note

• The short answer
• Prices falling
• Interest rates rising
• The launch price landing high
• Competing with other owners at TOP: for tenants, and for buyers
• Rent falling

The short answer

• Prices falling. Resale prices near Thomson Reserve fell 21.0% from early 2008 to early 2009 and were back at their peak 4 quarters after the low. They fell 10.7% from 2013 to 2015, about twice Singapore's fall over the same quarters, and took 12 quarters to recover.
• Interest rates rising. This series assumes a loan at 2% a year. At 4%, the rate banks use to test whether a buyer can afford a loan, the monthly repayment on the cheapest 3-bedroom rises from $8,761 to $10,672 once the whole loan is drawn, and its middle return 5 years after TOP falls from 58.4% to 39.0% of the cash put in for an owner living in it.
• The launch price landing high. The higher the price paid over resale nearby, the further prices nearby have to rise before a buyer gains. At $3,300 psf, Thomson Reserve would be 41.5% above what homes at four nearby condos resell for, once floor areas are measured the same way. At those four condos, prices on homes sold twice fell 9.5% from 2012 to 2014 while Singapore's rose, mostly as first resales landed below launch prices.
• Competing with other owners at TOP. At earlier launches nearby, landlords signed 16 to 48 leases for every 100 homes in the first 6 months, but first-year rents stayed above the other condos nearby in 13 of 21 comparisons, and resale prices mostly moved with the market. Few owners sold as soon as their seller's stamp duty ended: 2.0% to 7.6% of the units within a year.
• Rent falling. Over 5-year spans since 2012, 1 in 10 spans saw rent near here fall 4.8% a year or more for 2-bedrooms, 4.3% for 3-bedrooms and 2.6% for 4-bedrooms.

Prices falling

• Near Thomson Reserve
• Singapore, URA's index of private homes other than landed

Fall	Near here	Back at the peak	Singapore, the same quarters
2008-Q1 to 2009-Q1	−21.0%	2010-Q14 quarters after the low	−22.5%
2013-Q3 to 2015-Q1	−10.7%	2018-Q112 quarters after the low	−5.4%

In 2008 and 2009, prices near here fell about as far as Singapore's. From 2013 they fell about twice as far over the same quarters but recovered sooner: URA's index kept falling until mid-2017 and was back at its peak only in the third quarter of 2019, six quarters after prices near here. In the latest quarter, the third of 2026, prices near here dipped 3.2%; one quarter is too soon to call it a fall.

A buyer who has to sell during a fall, because of a job, a family change or a loan they can no longer carry, sells at the low. The low cases in the series' return notes include owners who sold through falls like these.

Interest rates rising

Every return in this series assumes a loan at 2% a year. The monthly repayment and the middle return 5 years after TOP at 2%, 3% and 4%, for the cheapest home of each size at its starting price:

Home	Repayment at TOP, 2%	Repayment once the whole loan is drawn: 2% / 3% / 4%
2-bedroom$1.544M	$4,248	$5,404 / $5,977 / $6,583
3-bedroom$2.503M	$6,887	$8,761 / $9,689 / $10,672
4-bedroom$3.388M	$9,322	$11,858 / $13,115 / $14,446

Home	Living in it: 2% / 3% / 4%	Renting it out: 2% / 3% / 4%
2-bedroom	37.8% / 28.6% / 20.1%	60.3% / 50.0% / 40.5%
3-bedroom	58.4% / 48.4% / 39.0%	76.9% / 66.0% / 55.8%
4-bedroom	44.2% / 34.9% / 26.3%	63.3% / 53.2% / 43.7%

Each percentage point on the loan lowers the middle return by about 9 to 11 percentage points. 4% is also the rate banks use to test whether a buyer can afford a loan, so a buyer who passed that test was judged able to carry the repayment at 4%.

The launch price landing high

A buyer who pays well above what similar homes nearby resell for needs prices nearby to rise further before a sale covers the price and the costs. The developer has not yet set the average price. The series compares three levels the market expects it to land at, $2,700, $3,000 and $3,300 psf, with what homes at four nearby condos resell for, once floor areas are measured the same way. At $3,300 psf, Thomson Reserve would be 41.5% above them. For the layouts with enough comparable resales, the gap at $3,300 psf runs from $672,330 to $917,315 a home.

At the four comparison condos, prices on homes sold twice fell 9.5% from 2012 to 2014, while Singapore's rose. Most of those pairs began with the developer's sale, so the fall was mostly first resales landing below the launch prices: buyers who paid launch prices and sold early took the loss.

More on this: Thomson Reserve's price levels against resale and land cost

Competing with other owners at TOP

At TOP, a new condo's owners all decide at once whether to move in, rent it out or sell. A landlord then competes with many other owners for tenants, and a seller competes with other sellers. That could mean a lower rent, more empty months or a lower price. At earlier launches nearby, this is how much competition there was, and what it did.

Landlords competing for tenants. Leases signed in the first 6 months after TOP, for every 100 homes of each size:

Launch	2-bedroom	3-bedroom	All homes
Centro Residences	50.0	33.7	47.7
Thomson Grand	26.9	11.0	17.8
Thomson Three	17.9	10.8	16.4
Sky Vue	40.3	25.3	37.8
Thomson Impressions	23.6	9.4	20.1
Jadescape	24.1	9.1	20.9

2-bedrooms drew 18 to 50 leases for every 100 homes in the first 6 months, 3-bedrooms 9 to 34. Yet first-year rents at these launches were above the other condos within 2.5 km in 13 of 21 comparisons across 2-, 3- and 4-bedrooms.

Sellers competing for buyers. Seller's stamp duty runs from each buyer's own purchase date. Buyers from the developer who sold within 12 months of their own duty ending:

Launch	TOP	Sold within 12 months of the duty ending	Share of the units
Thomson Grand	2015	10	2.8%
Thomson Three	2016	9	2.0%
Sky Vue	2016	51	7.3%
Thomson Impressions	2018	10	3.5%
Jadescape	2022	92	7.6%
AMO Residence	2026	39 so far	10.5% so far

Over the 2 years after TOP, 3-bedroom resale prices at these launches mostly moved with the market: at 5 of 8 launches they rose more or fell less than URA's index over the same years.

For Thomson Reserve, a buyer who signs on or before 28 February 2027, about the first 4 months after the launch, will be past the 4-year duty at the expected TOP. A later buyer who has to sell then pays the duty: 16% of the price if sold in the first year, 12% in the second, 8% in the third and 4% in the fourth.

At these launches, the competition did not push rents or prices below the market. That rests on 6 to 9 earlier launches nearby for each measure, in the markets they met; a weaker market at Thomson Reserve's TOP could give a different result.

More on this: what a 3-bedroom here could make, living in it or renting it out

Rent falling

How rent near Thomson Reserve changed over 5-year spans since 2012, a yearly rate for each span:

Size	1 in 10 spans did this badly or worse	The typical span
2-bedroom	−4.8% a year	3.7% a year
3-bedroom	−4.3% a year	1.7% a year
4-bedroom	−2.6% a year	3.0% a year

The series' return notes keep the rent at today's level. In those notes, a lower rent changes the middle return far less than the price cases do: on the cheapest 3-bedroom, a rent $600 a month lower lowers it by about 1.4 percentage points.

What this tells you

Of the risks here, interest rates and prices move a buyer's return the most. Each percentage point on the loan takes about 9 to 11 percentage points off the middle return, and the two falls near here since 2005 took 21.0% and 10.7% off prices before they recovered. A higher launch price raises how far prices nearby must rise before a buyer gains. At earlier launches nearby, owners competing for tenants and buyers at TOP did not push rents or prices below the market, and a lower rent moves the return far less than the price does.

What this does not tell you

• How likely each risk is. These are past falls and today's rules, not a forecast.
• Your own position. Your loan, your other commitments and how long you can hold decide how much a fall or a rate rise would cost you.
• Risks with no data here. A developer's finances, building defects and changes in policy are not measured in this note.

Method and data notes

Price falls. Homes within 2.5 km of Thomson Reserve sold twice, held 1 to 40 years, in a quarterly repeat-sales index; quarters with fewer than 30 pairs of sales are left out. A fall runs from a peak to the lowest point before the index is back at that peak; falls of 5% or more are shown. Singapore: URA's price index for private homes other than landed homes.

Interest rates. The series' buyer: a Singapore citizen buying a first home with a 75% loan over 25 years, drawn in the standard stages for a home under construction, the last 15% taken as paid a year after TOP. Only the rate changes.

Competing with other owners at TOP. TOP: each condo's first recorded lease month. Seller's stamp duty: the duty periods for purchases from 14 January 2011, from 11 March 2017 and from 4 July 2025; each seller's purchase is the previous sale of the same home. Leases: URA's records of private leases. Prices: resales and sub-sales in the 24 months after TOP against the launch-year price, and URA's index over the same years. Rents: the first 12 months of leases against the other condos within 2.5 km.

Rent. URA's records of private leases, 5-year spans by condo and size, start years 2010 to 2020.