Did launch buyers near Thomson Reserve make money? How much, how fast, and did the launch price matter?

Since 2000, 13 condos have launched within 2.5 km of Thomson Reserve. This note looks at the 11 whose launch premium could be measured. Rafflesia Condominium had too few nearby resales to measure it, and The Panorama had no nearby condo completed in the 15 years before its launch. We found every buyer who bought a unit from the developer and has since sold it: 2,070 sales in all. For each one, we compared the price they sold at with the price they paid.

Typical in this note means the median: the middle seller at a launch, with half doing better and half doing worse.

What is in this note

• The short answer: whether buyers made money, how much, how fast, and whether the launch price mattered
• Launch by launch: each launch's typical gain, yearly rise and years held, in one table
• Did the launch price matter?: each launch's premium over nearby resale against how its buyers did compared with the market

The short answer

• Did they make money? Most did. At every one of the 11 launches, at least 78% of sellers sold for more than they paid.
• How much? The typical seller's gain ranged from $170,900 at Thomson Grand to $581,464 at Clover by the Park. That is 10.9% to 49.4% of what they paid.
• How fast? The typical yearly rise ranged from 1.34% at Thomson Grand to 7.56% at Clover by the Park. At 7 of the 11 launches, buyers' prices moved within 1 percentage point a year of the private home market. The year they bought made more difference to their result than which condo they bought.
• Did the launch price matter? Of the 6 launches priced more than a third above nearby resale, 5 rose more slowly than the market afterwards. Of the 5 priced lower, 4 rose faster.

Launch by launch

Sorted by launch year. Gain is the sale price minus the purchase price. Per year is the same rise spread evenly over the years held, compounded, like an interest rate.

Launch	Sales	Typical gain	% gain	Per year	Years held
The Gardens at Bishan2000	443	$229,200	40.5%	4.98%	6.9
Bishan Point2002	111	$210,000	36.8%	4.66%	6.7
Clover by the Park2008	258	$581,464	49.4%	7.56%	4.8
Centro Residences2009	129	$180,930	16.0%	1.64%	8.3
Thomson Grand2011	165	$170,900	10.9%	1.34%	9.4
Sky Habitat2012	114	$199,290	14.0%	1.58%	8.6
Sky Vue2013	221	$234,500	21.6%	3.00%	7.3
Thomson Three2013	160	$260,000	22.9%	2.70%	8.2
Thomson Impressions2015	102	$190,200	20.1%	2.96%	6.6
Jadescape2018	326	$370,250	27.2%	5.35%	4.6
AMO Residence2022	41	$467,000	20.9%	5.48%	3.7

A bigger dollar gain doesn't always mean a faster rise. Thomson Three's typical seller gained $260,000 at 2.70% a year, over 8.2 years. Bishan Point's gained less, $210,000, but at 4.66% a year, over 6.7 years. Results also varied within a launch. At Clover by the Park, the middle half of sellers gained between 5.26% and 13.95% a year. The Method lists that spread for every launch.

Did the launch price matter?

A launch's premium is how far its launch price was above what nearby homes resold for at the time: its typical new-sale psf in its launch year against the typical resale psf that year at completed condos within 1.2 km.

To see whether a premium held buyers back, we compared each buyer's yearly rise with the market's over the same dates. For the market we used URA's price index for private non-landed homes. The result is in percentage points a year. For example, Jadescape buyers' prices rose a typical 5.35% a year, which was 0.8 percentage points a year less than the market over the same dates.

Two launches a year apart

Sky Habitat and Sky Vue, both in Bishan, launched in 2012 and 2013. Sky Habitat was priced much further above nearby resale.

	Sky Habitat, 2012	Sky Vue, 2013
Priced above resale	45%	29%
Typical rise a year	1.58%	3.00%
Against the market	−0.7 pts	+1.1 pts

Sky Vue's buyers paid a smaller premium. Afterwards, their homes rose faster than the market, and Sky Habitat's rose more slowly.

All 11 launches

1. 1Centro Residences
2. 2Thomson Grand
3. 3The Gardens at Bishan
4. 4Sky Habitat
5. 5Jadescape
6. 6Thomson Impressions
7. 7Sky Vue
8. 8Thomson Three
9. 9AMO Residence
10. 10Bishan Point
11. 11Clover by the Park

Launch	Priced above nearby resale	Against the market, a year
Centro Residencesone comparison	73%	−0.8 pts
Thomson Grand	47%	−0.2 pts
The Gardens at Bishan	47%	+0.4 pts
Sky Habitat	45%	−0.7 pts
Jadescape	38%	−0.8 pts
Thomson Impressions	38%	−0.8 pts
Sky Vue	29%	+1.1 pts
Thomson Three	27%	+1.1 pts
AMO Residence	23%	+1.3 pts
Bishan Pointone comparison	18%	−0.5 pts
Clover by the Park	−4% (below)	+4.1 pts

Of the six launches priced more than a third above resale, five rose more slowly than the market. Of the five launches priced lower, four rose faster. Clover by the Park, the only launch priced below nearby resale, beat the market by the most. Centro Residences and Bishan Point could each be compared with only one nearby condo, so their premiums are less certain. Leaving them out gives the same pattern.

With only 11 launches, this pattern cannot be treated as a rule. As a check, we repeated the comparison with Realila's own price index. It gave the same answer, faster or slower than the market, for 7 of the 9 launches it covers.

More on this: how the premium is measured, and how Thomson Reserve's compares

What about costs?

All these figures are before stamp duty, fees and loan interest. A sale has to cover those costs before the seller makes money.

More on this: how much prices would need to rise to cover those costs at Thomson Reserve

What this tells you

Near Thomson Reserve, most launch buyers who sold made money, at every launch since 2000. How fast their homes rose depended mostly on the market in the years they held. The launch premium made a smaller difference: buyers who paid a bigger premium over nearby resale tended to do somewhat worse than the market, and those who paid less tended to do somewhat better.

What this does not tell you

• What buyers actually earned. The figures compare sale price with purchase price, before stamp duty, fees and loan interest. Launch buyers also pay in stages while the condo is built, so their return on the cash they put in differs from the price change. We'll publish that comparison, matched against resale buyers, after Thomson Reserve launches.
• How owners who haven't sold are doing. Only completed sales are counted. At Jadescape, 326 have sold, and the rest still own their units.
• Anything about Thomson Reserve's future prices. These are past results, not a forecast.

Method and data notes

Data. URA caveat records of private home sales held by Realila: condominiums and apartments, single-unit sales only, collective sales excluded, sales to 11 October 2026.

Launches. The 11 launches within 2.5 km of Thomson Reserve since 2000 whose launch premium could be measured, landed homes and executive condominiums excluded. A launch needs at least 5 completed sales.

First owners. A first owner bought a unit from the developer and later sold it. Their sale is the next recorded sale of the same unit, whether before completion (a sub-sale) or after. A unit the developer sold twice isn't counted, and owners still holding aren't counted.

Gain and yearly rise. A gain is the sale price minus the purchase price, before stamp duty, fees and loan interest. The yearly rise is the sale price over the purchase price, to the power of 1 over the years held, minus 1. Years held are the days between the two contract dates divided by 365.25. Holds under a year count in the number of sales and the share sold at a profit, but not in the yearly figures. The middle half of sellers is the 25th to 75th percentile:

Launch	Typical rise a year	Middle half of sellers
The Gardens at Bishan	4.98%	3.25–5.96%
Bishan Point	4.66%	2.10–5.53%
Clover by the Park	7.56%	5.26–13.95%
Centro Residences	1.64%	0.28–2.93%
Thomson Grand	1.34%	0.19–2.28%
Sky Habitat	1.58%	0.25–2.55%
Sky Vue	3.00%	2.16–3.70%
Thomson Three	2.70%	2.05–3.51%
Thomson Impressions	2.96%	1.86–4.05%
Jadescape	5.35%	4.33–6.51%
AMO Residence	5.48%	4.73–6.22%

Against the market. URA's price index for private non-landed homes is quarterly. We read it at the quarter of each purchase and each sale. A buyer's figure is their yearly rise minus the index's over the same dates, in percentage points. The table shows each launch's median. Sales after the index's latest quarter, 2026 Q2, are left out of this comparison. Realila's own repeat-sales index, which starts in 2009, is used only as a check.

Priced above resale. Each launch's premium is its median new-sale psf in its launch year over the median resale psf, that year, at condominiums within 1.2 km of it that were completed in the 15 years before and had at least 5 resales that year. A launch year is the first year with at least 20 new sales. Bishan Point and Centro Residences were each compared against only one such condo, so their premiums are less certain; they show as hollow dots on the chart.

Corrections

21 October 2026. This note said "Since 2000, 11 condos have launched within 2.5 km of Thomson Reserve." That count left out the condos whose launch premium could not be measured. It now says "Since 2000, 13 condos have launched within 2.5 km of Thomson Reserve. This note looks at the 11 whose launch premium could be measured."

21 October 2026. This note said "A bigger dollar gain doesn't always mean a faster rise" and gave Thomson Grand and Jadescape as the example, but in this note's table Jadescape had both the bigger dollar gain and the faster rise. It now gives "Thomson Three's typical seller gained $260,000 at 2.70% a year, over 8.2 years. Bishan Point's gained less, $210,000, but at 4.66% a year, over 6.7 years."