The return on a 3-bedroom at Thomson Reserve: living in it or renting it out

A buyer of a Thomson Reserve 3-bedroom can live in it or rent it out once the keys are handed over, expected on 28 February 2031, about 4 years and 4 months after the launch. This note works out how much money each would make or lose, with the price, the rent and the costs together, if the home is sold 5 years after buying or 5 years after the keys. It takes the cheapest 3-bedroom, 947 sq ft, at its starting price of $2.503M.

The return in this note is the gain or loss after every cost counted here, as a share of the cash the buyer put in: the first 25% of the price, stamp duty, fees and every monthly loan repayment until the sale.

What is in this note

• The short answer
• The buyer and the cases
• What a landlord pays: property tax, the agent's commission and months without a tenant
• Sold 5 years after buying
• Sold 5 years after the keys
• How much the rent matters
• At other prices and sizes
• At the keys: earlier launches: what 3-bedrooms resold for after their keys were handed over
• What the numbers cannot weigh

The short answer

• Sold 5 years after buying. The keys come 8 months before the sale, so a landlord collects only 6 months of rent. In the middle case the buyer gains 44.7% of the cash put in living in it and 47.4% renting it out. In the low case the price falls slightly, and the buyer loses $241,000 living in it and $217,000 renting it out, about a quarter of the cash put in.
• Sold 5 years after the keys. That is about 9 years and 4 months after buying. In the middle case the buyer gains 58.4% of the cash put in living in it and 76.9% renting it out. In the low case, renting it out turns a loss of $229,000 into a gain of $18,000. The table does not count the rent an owner living in it saves: about $336,000 over those 5 years at today's rent.
• What a landlord pays. Property tax on a home that is rented out is charged at higher rates: about $13,392 a year on a $5,600 rent, against about $3,440 for an owner living in it. Property tax, the agent's commission and 1 empty month in every 24 together take about 29% of the rent.
• Price growth moves the return far more than the rent does. At a rent of $5,000 or $5,800 instead of $5,600, the middle return is between 75.5% and 77.4%. Across the three price cases, it runs from 1.3% to 149.2%.
• At the keys. At 8 earlier launches nearby, 3-bedrooms resold in the 2 years after the keys went for more per square foot than at launch at 5 launches, and for less at 3. At 5 of the 8, their price rose more or fell less than the market's over the same years.

The buyer and the cases

The buyer is a Singapore citizen buying a first home. They pay the first 25% of the price themselves and borrow the rest over 25 years at 2% a year. As with any home bought before it is built, the bank pays the developer in stages as the building goes up, so the loan and its interest grow over time.

No one knows how prices will move, so this note uses three cases from 3-bedrooms near Thomson Reserve that were bought and later sold again. In the low case, 9 in 10 owners did better than this. The middle case is the typical owner. In the high case, 1 in 10 did this well or better.

• Sold after 5 years: −0.21%, 4.56% and 10.49% a year, from 496 3-bedrooms resold 4 to 6 years after being bought. In the low case the price falls.
• Sold after about 9 years: 0.60%, 4.20% and 6.89% a year, from 459 3-bedrooms resold 8 to 11 years after being bought.

A landlord finds a first tenant 2 months after the keys, at $5,600 a month. That is the typical 3-bedroom rent over the past year at Thomson Three, Thomson Impressions, Thomson Grand and Jadescape, four condos nearby that this series compares with Thomson Reserve. The rent stays at $5,600 throughout and is not projected forward.

A buyer who already owns a home pays an extra 20% of the price in additional buyer's stamp duty, which these cases leave out. With it, the price of the cheapest 3-bedroom would need to rise about 27% before a sale covers the costs, before counting any loan interest.

More on this: the costs of buying and selling here · rent and yield for a 3-bedroom here

What a landlord pays

Over the 5 years from the keys to a sale, on the cheapest 3-bedroom at $5,600 a month:

	Renting it out	Living in it
Rent, if let every month from the first tenant	$324,800	–
Months without a tenant, 1 in every 24	−$13,533	–
Property tax, 5 years	−$66,960$13,392 a year	−$17,200$3,440 a year
Agent's commission and GST	−$14,751	–
Rent after costs	$229,555	–

Property tax rates rise in steps as the annual value goes up, so a higher rent pays tax at a higher rate on its top slice. That is why these costs take about 29% of a 3-bedroom's rent here, against about a quarter of a 2-bedroom's.

Not counted, for either use: maintenance fees, which the developers have not yet set; income tax on the rent, which depends on the owner's other income; furnishing, repairs and insurance. Every $100 a month of maintenance fees over those 5 years adds up to $6,000 and lowers the return by about 0.4 percentage points.

Sold 5 years after buying

The buyer sells in October 2031, 8 months after the keys. Property tax runs from the keys, and a landlord collects 6 months of rent.

Case	Price after 5 years	Living in it	Renting it out
Low−0.21% a year	−1.0%	−$241,000−27.2%	−$217,000−24.5%
Middle4.56% a year	25.0%	$396,00044.7%	$420,00047.4%
High10.49% a year	64.7%	$1,368,000154.5%	$1,392,000157.2%

To break even, the price would need to rise 1.70% a year for an owner living in it, or 1.52% a year for a landlord.

Sold 5 years after the keys

The buyer sells in February 2036, about 9 years and 4 months after buying. Property tax runs for 5 years, and a landlord has a tenant for 58 months.

Case	Price after 9 years 4 months	Living in it	Renting it out
Low0.60% a year	5.7%	−$229,000−17.2%	$18,0001.3%
Middle4.20% a year	46.9%	$779,00058.4%	$1,025,00076.9%
High6.89% a year	86.3%	$1,743,000130.7%	$1,990,000149.2%

To break even, the price would need to rise 1.52% a year for an owner living in it, or 0.52% a year for a landlord.

The table counts no benefit for living in the home. An owner living in it does not pay rent elsewhere. At $5,600 a month, the typical rent for a similar 3-bedroom nearby, that is $336,000 over those 5 years.

How much the rent matters

The middle case, sold 5 years after the keys, for a landlord, at four rents: the lowest and highest typical 3-bedroom rent among the four comparison condos, their combined typical rent, and the typical rent for 3-bedrooms close in size to Thomson Reserve's.

Rent	Rent after costs	Return
$5,000Thomson Three, the lowest	$210,746	75.5%
$5,5503-bedrooms of a similar size	$227,988	76.8%
$5,600the four condos combined	$229,555	76.9%
$5,800Jadescape and Thomson Grand, the highest	$235,825	77.4%

A difference of $800 in monthly rent changes the return by about 2 percentage points. The three price cases change it by about 148 points.

Rent near here has also moved over time. Over 5-year spans since 2012, 1 in 10 spans saw 3-bedroom rent fall 4.34% a year or more, the typical span saw it rise 1.72% a year, and 1 in 10 saw it rise 10.67% a year or more. This note keeps the rent at today's level rather than projecting it.

At other prices and sizes

Most 3-bedrooms at the launch will cost more than the cheapest, but this note has no rent figure that rises with the price. The table shows the return 5 years after the keys at the three levels the market expects the average price to land at, and for the two bigger 3-bedroom layouts.

Home and price	Middle, living	Middle, renting	Low, renting
947 sq ft, $2,643 psf$2.503M, the starting price	58.4%	76.9%	1.3%
947 sq ft, $2,700 psf$2.557M	58.3%	76.5%	0.9%
947 sq ft, $3,000 psf$2.841M	58.2%	74.4%	−0.9%
947 sq ft, $3,300 psf$3.125M	57.9%	72.7%	−2.5%
1,055 sq ft, $3,000 psf$3.165M	57.9%	72.4%	−2.7%
1,152 sq ft, $3,000 psf$3.456M	57.5%	70.8%	−4.1%

At a higher price, an owner living in it gets almost the same return, because its gains and its costs both grow in step with the price. A landlord's return falls, because the same rent is a smaller share of a bigger price. At $3,000 psf and above, the low case for a landlord becomes a small loss.

At the keys: earlier launches

The price per square foot of 3-bedrooms at earlier launches near here, at launch and in the 2 years after their keys were handed over. The launch price is the typical 3-bedroom price in the first year each launch sold at least 20 new homes.

Launch	Launch, 3-bed psf	After the keys, 3-bed psf	Change	Market, same years
The Gardens at Bishan2000, keys 2004	$671	$52633 sales	−21.6%	−16.2%
Bishan Point2002, keys 2005	$499	$53426 sales	+7.0%	+13.6%
Clover by the Park2008, keys 2011	$766	$1,14638 sales	+49.6%	+15.0%
Thomson Grand2011, keys 2015	$1,252	$1,21715 sales	−2.8%	−3.3%
Sky Habitat2012, keys 2015	$1,537	$1,4737 sales	−4.1%	−4.6%
Thomson Three2013, keys 2016	$1,332	$1,5046 sales	+12.9%	−7.4%
Sky Vue2013, keys 2016	$1,378	$1,4775 sales	+7.2%	−6.4%
Jadescape2018, keys 2022	$1,659	$2,18931 sales	+31.9%	+32.9%

At 5 of the 8 launches, the 3-bedroom price change from launch to the keys was within 7 percentage points of the market's change. At 3, it rose well ahead of the market: by 34.6 points at Clover by the Park, 20.3 at Thomson Three and 13.6 at Sky Vue. At The Gardens at Bishan, Bishan Point and Jadescape, it rose less or fell more than the market. So for most launches, the gain or loss a launch buyer had at the keys came mostly from how the whole market moved over those years. The launch and resale prices are for different units, and some launches have few sales, so a handful of sales can shift a figure.

Few 3-bedrooms at these launches were resold just before their keys. From 2011, seller's stamp duty applied to homes sold within 3 or 4 years of buying, so launch buyers rarely sold before the keys. Thomson Reserve's keys are expected 4 years and 4 months after the launch, after a launch buyer's seller's stamp duty period has ended.

More on this: 3-bedroom launch prices and how their buyers did

What the numbers cannot weigh

The landlord cases assume the home is let at the typical rent for nearly the whole time. A unit with a poor stack or facing, or one let unfurnished when few tenants are looking, may rent for less or stand empty longer. Families renting a 3-bedroom often sign for school years, so a lease that ends at the wrong time of year can mean a longer wait for the next tenant. A buyer who lives in it may value things no table counts: being near family, a school or work, and a newer home with a fresh lease.

What this tells you

If the home is sold 5 years after buying, the owner has had the keys for only 8 months, so living in it and renting it out give similar returns: 44.7% and 47.4% in the middle case. The price decides most of the result, and in the low case both lose about a quarter of the cash put in. If the home is held for 5 years after the keys, renting it out turns the low case from a loss of 17.2% into a gain of 1.3%, and raises the middle case from 58.4% to 76.9%. An owner who lives in it instead saves about $336,000 of rent at today's level, which the tables do not count. In every case here, the price moves the return far more than the rent does.

What this does not tell you

• Your net rent. Maintenance fees, income tax on the rent, furnishing and repairs are not deducted.
• Your property tax. IRAS sets each unit's annual value; this note uses a year's rent instead.
• Whether prices or rents will rise. Every figure here comes from past markets. The cases are not a forecast.
• Your own costs. The cases assume a Singapore citizen's first home and a 75% loan at 2%. Your stamp duty, loan and holding period may differ.

Method and data notes

Buyer, loan and costs. The 3-bedroom starting price, $2,503,000; buyer's stamp duty, legal fees and mortgage duty; a 75% loan over 25 years at 2% a year, drawn in the standard stages for a home under construction; on the sale, commission of 2% with 9% GST, and $3,000 in legal fees. A sale 5 years after buying comes before the last 15% of the price is due, so it is settled from the sale. For a sale 5 years after the keys, the last 15% is taken as drawn from the loan a year after the keys. These are the same costs and loan as in the series' note on the costs of buying and selling.

Cases. For a sale after 5 years: 3-bedrooms within 2.5 km of Thomson Reserve bought from 2000 to 2020 and resold 4 to 6 years later. For a sale after about 9 years: those bought from 2000 to 2017 and resold 8 to 11 years later. Each case is the 10th, 50th or 90th percentile of their yearly price change, applied to the starting price.

Rent. The median 3-bedroom rent at the four comparison condos, October 2025 to September 2026, kept level; a first tenant 2 months after the keys; 1 month in 24 without a tenant; the agent's commission at half a month's rent per year of lease, plus GST.

Property tax. IRAS's 2026 rates, for a home its owner lives in or a home rented out, on an annual value taken as 12 months' rent, from the keys to the sale.

Other prices and sizes. The three price levels and the two bigger layouts are priced as in the series' note on Thomson Reserve's price levels, with the same cases, loan and costs, and the same rent.

At the keys. Each condo's first recorded lease month stands for the handover of its keys. 3-bedroom sub-sales and resales in the 24 months from it, shown with at least 5 sales.

Places. Within 2.5 km means a condo's point within 2.5 km of Thomson Reserve's, in a straight line.