Published 9 October 2026
Last updated 30 October 2026
Buying a 3 bedroom to live in: when does a resale leave more cash than waiting for a new launch?
By Realila · URA caveat sales and rental contracts to 31 December 2025
You have sold your home and need somewhere to live. You can buy a resale 3 bedroom, renovate it and rent elsewhere for 3 months while the work is done. Or you can buy a 3 bedroom at launch and rent until it is completed. Which leaves you with more cash when you sell depends mostly on one thing: how much the resale's renovation costs, against how old the resale is.
Held about 5 years, at a 2.5% mortgage rate, a resale 16 years or older still came out ahead with a renovation of up to $97,491, 7.7% of its median price. For a resale 6 to 15 years old the limit was $31,468 (2.2%). For a resale up to 5 years old it was $715 (0.1%): almost any renovation put the launch buyer ahead.
Holding longer or borrowing at a higher rate favours the launch. Held about 10 years, the launch buyer ended up ahead of a resale up to 5 years old whatever the renovation cost. At a 4.5% rate, the launch buyer ended up ahead of every resale up to 15 years old, while a resale 16 years or older still had room for a renovation of 5.3% of its price.
Checking your own quote Divide the renovation quote by the price of the resale you are looking at. If the result is below the figure for that resale's age in the table below, the resale is likely to leave you with more cash than renting and waiting for a launch.
What is in this note
- What each buyer pays for: the costs each buyer pays, from purchase to sale.
- How much renovation a resale can carry, by age: the most a resale buyer can spend on renovation and still end up ahead, held about 5 years and about 10 years.
- What a higher mortgage rate does: the same limit at four mortgage rates.
- The same limit in each region: the limit in the suburbs, the city fringe and prime.
- Two estimates that barely move the answer: the launch buyer's fit-out and the date of completion.
What each buyer pays for
Both buyers start with the same cash, and every cost each of them pays is counted month by month, from purchase to sale. Cash not yet spent earns the CPF Ordinary Account rate.
The resale buyer
- The deposit, stamp duty and legal fees at purchase.
- Interest on the whole loan from the day of purchase.
- The renovation, and rent elsewhere for the 3 months it takes.
- Maintenance, upkeep and owner-occupier property tax from purchase.
The launch buyer
- The booking fee, the downpayment, stamp duty and legal fees at purchase.
- Payments in stages as the building goes up, with interest only on the loan drawn so far.
- Rent for a 3 bedroom elsewhere every month until completion.
- A fit-out at completion, then maintenance, upkeep and owner-occupier property tax.
When each sells, both pay the agent's commission with GST and legal fees, and repay the loan. The comparison is each buyer's cash after that. Rents, rates and duties are those in force in each year; the Method gives each one.
How much renovation a resale can carry, by age
The figure in each cell is the most the resale buyer could spend on renovation and still end up with as much cash as the launch buyer. Below it, the resale buyer is ahead. Above it, the launch buyer is.
| Resale age | Held about 5 years | Held about 10 years |
|---|---|---|
| 16 years or older | $97,491 (7.7%) | $84,686 (6.2%) |
| 6 to 15 years old | $31,468 (2.2%) | $8,231 (0.6%) |
| Up to 5 years old | $715 (0.1%) | None: launch ahead by $75,278 |
| All resales | $47,411 (3.5%) | $10,118 (0.7%) |
The older the resale, the more renovation it can carry.
What a higher mortgage rate does
A higher rate lowers every limit. The resale buyer draws the whole loan on the day of purchase, while the launch buyer draws it in stages as the building goes up, so each extra percentage point of interest costs the resale buyer more.
| Resale age | At 1.5% | At 2.5% | At 3.5% | At 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 years or older | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% |
| 6 to 15 years old | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | None |
| Up to 5 years old | 1.3% | 0.1% | None | None |
| All resales | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
Held about 10 years the pattern is the same and stronger: at 3.5% and above, only a resale 16 years or older still came out ahead, with room for 4.5% at 3.5% and 2.7% at 4.5%.
The same limit in each region
The order holds in every region: the oldest resales carry the most renovation and the youngest the least. The levels differ.
| Region | 16 years or older | 6 to 15 years | Up to 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suburbs (OCR) | 10.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% |
| City fringe (RCR) | 5.6% | 0.7% | None |
| Prime (CCR) | 14.0% | 7.5% | None |
Held about 10 years, the suburbs reverse: the launch buyer ended up ahead of every resale under 16 years old there. The prime figure held about 10 years is not reliable, because it rests on 61 launch purchases, only 12 once the largest development is removed.
Two estimates that barely move the answer
Two of the launch buyer's costs are estimates: the fit-out, set at 1.5% of the price, and the date of completion, read as 1 July of the completion year. Setting the fit-out at 1% or 2% instead moves each limit by about half a percentage point. Moving completion 6 months earlier or later moves each by less than half a point: a later completion means more months of rent, but the payments and loan interest also start later, and the two nearly cancel out.
What this tells you
If you are choosing between a resale and a launch to live in, the resale's age matters most. A resale 16 years or older left room for a substantial renovation, about $97,000 at the median price, held about 5 years at a 2.5% rate. A resale up to 5 years old left almost none.
How long you hold and what you pay to borrow matter next. Every extra year held and every extra percentage point of interest moves the answer towards the launch.
This is about cash when you sell. It does not credit either buyer with the value of living in their own home, and it does not say which home you will be happier in.
If you are buying to rent out rather than to live in, see Does a 3 bedroom new launch make more money than a resale?
What this does not tell you
- The cost of a serviced apartment or a longer stay. The renovation stay is costed at 3 months of a 3 bedroom's market rent.
- Whether these owners lived in their units. The data records the purchase and the sale, not who lived there. Each pair is costed as if the owner did.
- The value of living in your own home. Neither buyer is credited with the rent they no longer pay; the comparison is in cash.
- Buying before selling. Both buyers sold first, so neither pays the additional buyer's stamp duty. Buying before selling is not modelled.
- Exact completion dates. The data gives the year a development was completed, not the date of its Temporary Occupation Permit.
- Your own costs. The renovation, fit-out and running costs are typical levels, not quotes.
Method and data notes
The pairs. Repeat sales of 3 bedroom condominium and apartment units in URA private residential transaction records: each purchase paired with the next sale of the same unit. The bedroom count is read on the purchase. A purchase from the developer is a launch; any other purchase is a resale. Units recorded with more than 1,000 square feet a bedroom, and two units with a mislabelled bedroom count, are left out, as are the projects and units excluded across the 3 bedroom series.
Two holds. About 5 years: bought from 2015 to 2020 and sold 4 to 6 years later. About 10 years: bought from 6 October 2012 to 2015 and sold 9 to 11 years later. The 10-year purchase years are pooled because each age band would otherwise be too small. Every sale is on or before 31 December 2025.
The 10-year pairs by purchase year, launch and resale: 2012, 131 and 94; 2013, 354 and 156; 2014, 124 and 130; 2015, 98 and 118.
What was left out, in order. Each pair is counted once, under the first rule it fails:
| Rule | About 5 years | About 10 years |
|---|---|---|
| An excluded project or flagged unit | 54 | 14 |
| Sold after 31 December 2025 | 128 | 59 |
| Launch with no completion year | none | none |
| Launch sold before its completion year | 4 | none |
| Launch sold in its completion year | 178 | none |
| Launch with an implausible lead time | 100 | 20 |
| Resale with no completion year | none | none |
| Resale bought before its completion year | none | none |
| Candidate pairs before these rules | 3,765 | 1,298 |
| Launch pairs kept | 1,507 | 707 |
| Resale pairs kept | 1,794 | 498 |
A launch's lead time is implausible if it was bought after mid-way through its completion year, or more than 6 years before it.
The two buyers, month by month. Both clocks start at purchase. Each side is priced on the medians of its own pairs: price, gain, hold and floor area. Stamp duty, the loan limit and seller's stamp duty are those in force on the median purchase date. Both buyers start with the same cash, which earns the CPF Ordinary Account rate until it is spent. The comparison is each buyer's cash at the later of the two sales; the buyer who sold first holds the proceeds as cash until then. The result does not depend on the starting sum, as long as that sum covers each buyer's largest payment.
- Resale buyer. Pays the deposit, stamp duty and legal fees, and draws the whole loan, at purchase. Pays for a renovation at purchase and rents a 3 bedroom elsewhere for 3 months while it is done. Pays maintenance, upkeep and owner-occupier property tax from purchase.
- Launch buyer. Pays the booking fee and the downpayment in force on the purchase date, then the progressive payments as the building goes up, with interest on the loan drawn so far. Rents a 3 bedroom elsewhere every month until completion, pays a fit-out of 1.5% of the price at completion, moves in the month after, and from then pays maintenance, upkeep and owner-occupier property tax. The construction stages are spread over each cell's median time to completion, so a launch that completes later also pays later.
- Both, at sale. The selling agent's commission of 2% of the sale price plus the GST in force on the sale date (7% to 2022, 8% in 2023, 9% from 2024), legal fees of $3,000, and the loan repaid.
Running costs and loan. Maintenance of $280 a month and upkeep of $1,200 a year for 474 square feet, scaled to each cell's floor area, as in the 3 bedroom launch-versus-resale note; legal fees on purchase of $3,000; and a 30-year loan at the mortgage rate shown, with 2.5% the headline rate. Owner-occupier property tax is charged at the schedule in force in each year, on an annual value taken as that year's market rent for the unit. It applies from purchase for the resale buyer, renovation months included, which is how IRAS applies the owner-occupier rates to a citizen or permanent resident's home. Strictly, an empty home does not qualify; the difference is 3 months' tax. Unspent cash earns 2.5% a year, the CPF Ordinary Account rate in every quarter from 2011 to 2025.
Rent paid while waiting. The median monthly rent per square foot of a 3 bedroom in URA rental contracts, for the year the rent is paid, applied to the cell's median floor area: the whole market for the headline tables, and each region for its own rows.
| Year | Whole market | Suburbs (OCR) | City fringe (RCR) | Prime (CCR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $3.18 | $2.78 | $3.10 | $3.94 |
| 2013 | $3.27 | $2.81 | $3.20 | $4.00 |
| 2014 | $3.19 | $2.69 | $3.10 | $3.78 |
| 2015 | $2.99 | $2.57 | $2.93 | $3.59 |
| 2016 | $2.83 | $2.44 | $2.83 | $3.42 |
| 2017 | $2.74 | $2.30 | $2.73 | $3.38 |
| 2018 | $2.75 | $2.38 | $2.74 | $3.35 |
| 2019 | $2.74 | $2.38 | $2.70 | $3.39 |
| 2020 | $2.71 | $2.34 | $2.65 | $3.28 |
| 2021 | $2.80 | $2.44 | $2.74 | $3.38 |
| 2022 | $3.34 | $2.93 | $3.24 | $4.01 |
| 2023 | $4.12 | $3.72 | $4.07 | $4.84 |
| 2024 | $4.11 | $3.67 | $4.09 | $4.62 |
| 2025 | $4.20 | $3.72 | $4.20 | $4.69 |
Completion. The records give a development's completion year only. Completion is read as 1 July of that year, and the launch side's time to completion is the median over its pairs. Fit-out and completion shows it 6 months shorter and longer. A launch sold in its completion year is left out, because a year alone cannot say whether the owner moved in before selling.
Break-evens by resale age, held about 5 years
In the Method, the renovation limit is called the break-even: the renovation cost, as a share of the resale price, at which both buyers end up with the same cash. "Launch ahead" here means the same as "None" in the tables above: the launch buyer ended up with more cash even with no renovation.
Held about 5 years, at a 2.5% mortgage rate
| Resale age (resales) | Break-even | Median price | Median age (years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All resales (1,794) | 3.5% ($47,411) | $1,370,000 | 12.0 |
| 0 to 5 years old (432) | 0.1% ($715) | $1,350,000 | 3.0 |
| 6 to 15 years old (713) | 2.2% ($31,468) | $1,450,000 | 10.0 |
| 16 years or older (649) | 7.7% ($97,491) | $1,273,000 | 20.0 |
Every row is compared with the same launch buyer: 1,507 launch purchases, with a median price of $1,390,500, a median 2.2 years from purchase to completion, and a median hold of 5.0 years.
Break-evens by resale age, held about 10 years
Held about 10 years, at a 2.5% mortgage rate
| Resale age (resales) | Break-even | Median price | Median age (years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All resales (498) | 0.7% ($10,118) | $1,400,000 | 10.0 |
| 0 to 5 years old (115) | Launch ahead | $1,610,000 | 3.0 |
| 6 to 15 years old (262) | 0.6% ($8,231) | $1,317,500 | 10.0 |
| 16 years or older (121) | 6.2% ($84,686) | $1,360,000 | 18.0 |
Every row is compared with the same launch buyer: 707 launch purchases, with a median price of $1,270,300, a median 2.7 years from purchase to completion, and a median hold of 9.9 years.
Where a cell says Launch ahead, the launch buyer ends up with more cash whatever the renovation costs. Each buyer's cash at the later sale, measured against keeping the same money at the CPF Ordinary Account rate:
- 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$294,636, launch buyer −$219,358
Both figures are usually negative because living in a home costs interest, maintenance and tax, and neither buyer is credited with the rent they no longer pay; compare the two figures with each other, not with zero.
Cash figures where the launch buyer is ahead, held about 5 years, at four mortgage rates
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- 0 to 5 years old, at 3.5%: resale buyer −$86,652, launch buyer −$67,755
- 0 to 5 years old, at 4.5%: resale buyer −$141,196, launch buyer −$102,009
- 6 to 15 years old, at 4.5%: resale buyer −$114,494, launch buyer −$102,009
Break-evens at four mortgage rates, held about 10 years
Held about 10 years
| Resale age | At 1.5% | At 2.5% | At 3.5% | At 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All resales | 2.5% | 0.7% | Launch ahead | Launch ahead |
| 0 to 5 years old | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead |
| 6 to 15 years old | 2.1% | 0.6% | Launch ahead | Launch ahead |
| 16 years or older | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- All resales, at 3.5%: resale buyer −$319,650, launch buyer −$299,253
- All resales, at 4.5%: resale buyer −$436,237, launch buyer −$380,676
- 0 to 5 years old, at 1.5%: resale buyer −$168,891, launch buyer −$141,248
- 0 to 5 years old, at 2.5%: resale buyer −$294,636, launch buyer −$219,358
- 0 to 5 years old, at 3.5%: resale buyer −$424,836, launch buyer −$299,253
- 0 to 5 years old, at 4.5%: resale buyer −$558,912, launch buyer −$380,676
- 6 to 15 years old, at 3.5%: resale buyer −$315,389, launch buyer −$299,253
- 6 to 15 years old, at 4.5%: resale buyer −$425,106, launch buyer −$380,676
What each level of renovation leaves the resale buyer
Each figure is how much more cash the resale buyer ends up with than the launch buyer, at the later of the two sales. A negative figure means the launch buyer ends up with more cash than the resale buyer.
Held about 5 years
| Resale age | Renovation 2.5% | Renovation 5% | Renovation 7.5% | Renovation 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All resales | $14,860 | −$23,811 | −$62,482 | −$101,153 |
| 0 to 5 years old | −$37,300 | −$75,406 | −$113,513 | −$151,619 |
| 6 to 15 years old | −$5,399 | −$46,328 | −$87,257 | −$128,187 |
| 16 years or older | $74,143 | $38,210 | $2,277 | −$33,656 |
Held about 10 years
| Resale age | Renovation 2.5% | Renovation 5% | Renovation 7.5% | Renovation 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All resales | −$31,785 | −$76,496 | −$121,207 | −$165,918 |
| 0 to 5 years old | −$126,695 | −$178,113 | −$229,530 | −$280,948 |
| 6 to 15 years old | −$31,561 | −$73,637 | −$115,714 | −$157,790 |
| 16 years or older | $64,749 | $21,316 | −$22,117 | −$65,551 |
Each extra 2.5% of the price spent on renovation lowers the figure by the same amount, because the renovation is paid once, at purchase.
Break-evens by region, at a 2.5% mortgage rate
Held about 5 years, at a 2.5% mortgage rate
| Region | All resales | 0 to 5 | 6 to 15 | 16 or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suburbs (OCR) | 6.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 10.8% |
| City fringe (RCR) | 1.3% | Launch ahead | 0.7% | 5.6% |
| Prime (CCR) | 7.7% | Launch ahead | 7.5% | 14.0% |
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- City fringe (RCR), 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$96,372, launch buyer −$9,239
- Prime (CCR), 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$262,863, launch buyer −$245,311
Held about 10 years, at a 2.5% mortgage rate
| Region | All resales | 0 to 5 | 6 to 15 | 16 or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suburbs (OCR) | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | 6.2% |
| City fringe (RCR) | 5.6% | 1.1% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| Prime (CCR) | 9.6% | 1.4% | 13.3% | 15.2% |
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- Suburbs (OCR), all resales: resale buyer −$196,850, launch buyer −$174,972
- Suburbs (OCR), 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$320,417, launch buyer −$174,972
- Suburbs (OCR), 6 to 15 years old: resale buyer −$221,303, launch buyer −$174,972
The prime (CCR) figure held about 10 years is not reliable. It rests on 61 launch purchases, only 12 once the largest development is removed, and removing that development moves the break-even for all resales at a 2.5% rate from 9.6% to 22.2%. Every region with its largest development removed is below.
Break-evens by region at four mortgage rates
The break-even for all resales and for each age band, in each region, at each mortgage rate. The pairs are those under each region table above.
Held about 5 years
| Region and rate | All resales | 0 to 5 | 6 to 15 | 16 or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suburbs (OCR), 1.5% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 11.8% |
| Suburbs (OCR), 2.5% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 10.8% |
| Suburbs (OCR), 3.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 9.8% |
| Suburbs (OCR), 4.5% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 8.8% |
| City fringe (RCR), 1.5% | 2.5% | Launch ahead | 1.9% | 6.7% |
| City fringe (RCR), 2.5% | 1.3% | Launch ahead | 0.7% | 5.6% |
| City fringe (RCR), 3.5% | 0.0% | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | 4.5% |
| City fringe (RCR), 4.5% | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | 3.4% |
| Prime (CCR), 1.5% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 9.6% | 15.8% |
| Prime (CCR), 2.5% | 7.7% | Launch ahead | 7.5% | 14.0% |
| Prime (CCR), 3.5% | 5.6% | Launch ahead | 5.4% | 12.2% |
| Prime (CCR), 4.5% | 3.5% | Launch ahead | 3.2% | 10.4% |
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- City fringe (RCR), 1.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$30,271, launch buyer $29,109
- City fringe (RCR), 2.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$96,372, launch buyer −$9,239
- City fringe (RCR), 3.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$163,656, launch buyer −$47,887
- City fringe (RCR), 3.5%, 6 to 15 years old: resale buyer −$57,528, launch buyer −$47,887
- City fringe (RCR), 4.5%, all resales: resale buyer −$108,270, launch buyer −$86,784
- City fringe (RCR), 4.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$231,936, launch buyer −$86,784
- City fringe (RCR), 4.5%, 6 to 15 years old: resale buyer −$118,396, launch buyer −$86,784
- Prime (CCR), 2.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$262,863, launch buyer −$245,311
- Prime (CCR), 3.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$375,879, launch buyer −$283,199
- Prime (CCR), 4.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$490,655, launch buyer −$321,205
Held about 10 years
| Region and rate | All resales | 0 to 5 | 6 to 15 | 16 or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suburbs (OCR), 1.5% | 0.1% | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | 7.9% |
| Suburbs (OCR), 2.5% | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | 6.2% |
| Suburbs (OCR), 3.5% | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | 4.3% |
| Suburbs (OCR), 4.5% | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | 2.4% |
| City fringe (RCR), 1.5% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 7.0% | 11.0% |
| City fringe (RCR), 2.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| City fringe (RCR), 3.5% | 3.8% | Launch ahead | 3.9% | 8.7% |
| City fringe (RCR), 4.5% | 2.0% | Launch ahead | 2.2% | 7.5% |
| Prime (CCR), 1.5% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| Prime (CCR), 2.5% | 9.6% | 1.4% | 13.3% | 15.2% |
| Prime (CCR), 3.5% | 8.9% | Launch ahead | 13.0% | 14.3% |
| Prime (CCR), 4.5% | 8.2% | Launch ahead | 12.7% | 13.3% |
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- Suburbs (OCR), 1.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$218,884, launch buyer −$104,843
- Suburbs (OCR), 1.5%, 6 to 15 years old: resale buyer −$132,038, launch buyer −$104,843
- Suburbs (OCR), 2.5%, all resales: resale buyer −$196,850, launch buyer −$174,972
- Suburbs (OCR), 2.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$320,417, launch buyer −$174,972
- Suburbs (OCR), 2.5%, 6 to 15 years old: resale buyer −$221,303, launch buyer −$174,972
- Suburbs (OCR), 3.5%, all resales: resale buyer −$293,793, launch buyer −$246,676
- Suburbs (OCR), 3.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$425,548, launch buyer −$246,676
- Suburbs (OCR), 3.5%, 6 to 15 years old: resale buyer −$313,706, launch buyer −$246,676
- Suburbs (OCR), 4.5%, all resales: resale buyer −$393,597, launch buyer −$319,727
- Suburbs (OCR), 4.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$533,808, launch buyer −$319,727
- Suburbs (OCR), 4.5%, 6 to 15 years old: resale buyer −$408,836, launch buyer −$319,727
- City fringe (RCR), 3.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$429,642, launch buyer −$405,806
- City fringe (RCR), 4.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$573,544, launch buyer −$498,779
- Prime (CCR), 3.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$703,749, launch buyer −$686,544
- Prime (CCR), 4.5%, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$937,340, launch buyer −$850,466
Largest development removed
The break-even for all resales in each region, with the largest development removed from each side.
Held about 5 years
| Region | At 1.5% | At 2.5% | At 3.5% | At 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suburbs (OCR) | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% |
| City fringe (RCR) | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | Launch ahead |
| Prime (CCR) | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% |
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- City fringe (RCR), at 4.5%: resale buyer −$106,732, launch buyer −$104,049
Held about 10 years
| Region | At 1.5% | At 2.5% | At 3.5% | At 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suburbs (OCR) | 0.0% | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead |
| City fringe (RCR) | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% |
| Prime (CCR) | 22.0% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 22.6% |
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- Suburbs (OCR), at 2.5%: resale buyer −$196,850, launch buyer −$175,432
- Suburbs (OCR), at 3.5%: resale buyer −$293,793, launch buyer −$248,924
- Suburbs (OCR), at 4.5%: resale buyer −$393,597, launch buyer −$323,817
By purchase period
At a 2.5% mortgage rate, the break-even for all resales and for each age band, by when the resale was bought.
| Bought | All resales | 0 to 5 | 6 to 15 | 16 or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead |
| 2016 | 1.0% | Launch ahead | 1.1% | 5.2% |
| 2017 | 7.4% | 0.2% | 8.0% | 11.7% |
| Jan to Jul 2018 | 8.7% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 12.5% |
| Jul to Dec 2018 | 0.5% | 1.5% | Launch ahead | 1.2% |
| 2019 | 4.8% | 0.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% |
| 2020 | 6.6% | 3.2% | 8.34% | 8.25% |
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- 2015, all resales: resale buyer −$209,697, launch buyer −$127,915
- 2015, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$323,372, launch buyer −$128,178
- 2015, 6 to 15 years old: resale buyer −$206,372, launch buyer −$128,178
- 2015, 16 years or older: resale buyer −$167,552, launch buyer −$127,915
- 2016, 0 to 5 years old: resale buyer −$182,263, launch buyer −$108,508
- Jul to Dec 2018, 6 to 15 years old: resale buyer $24,863, launch buyer $37,619
Pairs in each period:
- 2015: 232 resales (40, 118 and 74 by age) against 163 launch
- 2016: 342 resales (70, 153 and 119 by age) against 240 launch
- 2017: 394 resales (95, 148 and 151 by age) against 347 launch
- Jan to Jul 2018: 198 resales (52, 66 and 80 by age) against 112 launch
- Jul to Dec 2018: 115 resales (40, 48 and 27 by age) against 60 launch
- 2019: 257 resales (73, 86 and 98 by age) against 268 launch
- 2020: 256 resales (62, 94 and 100 by age) against 317 launch
The order by age holds in five of the seven periods. In the second half of 2018, a buyer of a resale up to 5 years old could spend more on renovation than a buyer of a resale 16 years or older, and a buyer of a resale 6 to 15 years old could spend nothing. In 2020, a buyer of a resale 6 to 15 years old could spend slightly more than a buyer of a resale 16 years or older; those two cells are printed to two decimal places.
Fit-out and completion
Two costs are estimates: the launch buyer's fit-out, set at 1.5% of the price, and the time to completion, read from a completion year. The tables below show the break-even at a 2.5% mortgage rate when either one is different.
Fit-out, held about 5 years
| Resale age | Fit-out 1% | As stated | Fit-out 2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| All resales | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% |
| 0 to 5 years old | Launch ahead | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 6 to 15 years old | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| 16 years or older | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% |
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- 0 to 5 years old, fit-out 1%: resale buyer −$32,905, launch buyer −$26,286
Fit-out, held about 10 years
| Resale age | Fit-out 1% | As stated | Fit-out 2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| All resales | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| 0 to 5 years old | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead |
| 6 to 15 years old | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| 16 years or older | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% |
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- 0 to 5 years old, fit-out 1%: resale buyer −$294,636, launch buyer −$211,761
- 0 to 5 years old, fit-out as stated: resale buyer −$294,636, launch buyer −$219,358
- 0 to 5 years old, fit-out 2%: resale buyer −$294,636, launch buyer −$226,954
Completion, held about 5 years
| Resale age | 6 months sooner | As stated | 6 months later |
|---|---|---|---|
| All resales | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 0 to 5 years old | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 6 to 15 years old | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 16 years or older | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
Completion, held about 10 years
| Resale age | 6 months sooner | As stated | 6 months later |
|---|---|---|---|
| All resales | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| 0 to 5 years old | Launch ahead | Launch ahead | Launch ahead |
| 6 to 15 years old | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| 16 years or older | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
Cash figures for the 'Launch ahead' cells:
- 0 to 5 years old, completion 6 months sooner: resale buyer −$294,636, launch buyer −$215,372
- 0 to 5 years old, completion as stated: resale buyer −$294,636, launch buyer −$219,358
- 0 to 5 years old, completion 6 months later: resale buyer −$294,636, launch buyer −$221,853
Moving completion 6 months earlier or later changes each break-even by less than half a percentage point. A later completion means more months of rent for the launch buyer, but the progressive payments and the loan interest also start later, and the two nearly cancel out.
Data. URA private residential transactions to 29 September 2026, and URA private rental contracts to 2025. Every figure on this page is registered and re-computed from the records.
30 October 2026. This note placed homes in market segments by postal district. URA places them by planning area, which moves about one in seven private sales between regions. The figures by region here use the earlier segments and differ from what the same records give now. How regions are set: How we measure prices and sales. A restated version is at Buying a 3 bedroom to live in: when does a resale leave more cash than waiting for a new launch?.
More from Realila
- 3 bedroom to live in: resale or new launch, the renovation break-even
Bought to live in, 2015 to 2020, held about 5 years: a resale 3 bedroom 16 years or older could take a 7.7% renovation and still beat waiting for a launch.
- Dunearn House: price paid against resale nearby and land cost
Dunearn House buyers paid a median $3,107 psf to 19 Oct 2026, 26.9% above resale within 2 km and 2.20 times the land cost.
- URA's private home price index rose 1.4% in Q3 2026
URA's private home price index rose 1.4% in Q3 2026, after 0.5% in Q2. Landed homes rose 2.9%; non-landed homes in the outside central region rose 2.3%.
Every number in this post comes from Realila Research, dated to when it was true. For now we publish research notes from the platform to answer the community's questions; the platform itself opens to the public later.
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