Published 16 September 2026
In 2017, three in five new-launch shoebox buyers came from an HDB address. In 2025, it was still more than four in ten
By Realila
Of everyone who bought a new-launch shoebox in 2017 and whose address type the caveat records, 60.3% were buying from an HDB flat. The share rose before it fell: a peak of 64.7% in 2018, then down to 43.7% by 2025, a fall of 16.6 points from the 2017 start and 21.0 points from the 2018 peak.
The same measure on three-bedroom units fell much further over the same nine years, from 52.1% to 28.9%, a fall of 23.2 points against shoebox's 16.6. The small end held its buyer more than the large end did. The rest of what we found about shoebox units is on the shoebox units guide.
Key takeaways
- Against three-bedroom. Shoebox new-launch HDB share fell 16.6 points; the same measure on three-bedroom units fell 23.2, and shoebox ran higher than three-bedroom in both years measured. Against three-bedroom
- Volume. New launch was the larger leg through 2021; resale has been larger since 2022. Volume
- Three crossings, not one. Shoebox's two legs swapped the HDB-share lead three times. Three-bedroom crossed once. Three crossings, not one
- Same size, not a relocation. HDB caveat counts moved with each leg's own volume rather than shifting from new launch into resale. Same size, not a relocation
Against three-bedroom
Share of buyers giving an HDB address, of those whose address type is recorded.
- New launch
- Resale
| Year | New launch | Resale |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 60.3% | 55.4% |
| 2018 | 64.7% | 54.2% |
| 2019 | 59.8% | 48.8% |
| 2020 | 55.0% | 53.3% |
| 2021 | 44.3% | 52.5% |
| 2022 | 42.4% | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 47.8% | 45.7% |
| 2024 | 49.1% | 44.1% |
| 2025 | 43.7% | 45.1% |
Resale changed far less: 55.4% to 45.1%, a fall of 10.3 points against new launch's 16.6. The retreat is a new-launch phenomenon.
Volume
Transactions, both legs, national. Context only: no cause is attributed to any of it.
| Year | New launch | Resale |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1,382 | 655 |
| 2018 | 1,583 | 701 |
| 2019 | 1,897 | 435 |
| 2020 | 1,620 | 630 |
| 2021 | 1,696 | 1,304 |
| 2022 | 689 | 1,191 |
| 2023 | 650 | 1,064 |
| 2024 | 460 | 1,137 |
| 2025 | 982 | 1,217 |
New launch was the larger leg every year through 2021. From 2022 it was smaller, and has stayed smaller through 2025. One crossing, a fact about which leg had more transactions, not about which leg had the higher HDB share below.
Three crossings, not one
The two legs traded the HDB-share lead three times. New launch fell below resale in 2021 and 2022, rose back above it in 2023 and 2024, and fell below again in 2025, ending 1.4 points behind. Three-bedroom's two legs crossed once, in 2022, and stayed crossed. This is a different pattern from three-bedroom's, not a variant of it.
Same size, not a relocation
Whether the HDB buyer moved from new launch to resale, or both legs simply changed size, is answerable from caveat counts rather than shares. Between 2019 and 2024, HDB caveats on the new-launch leg fell from 1,074 to 195 while the resale leg's rose from 210 to 501. Both moved with their own leg's total rather than against it: new-launch volume fell over the same span, from 1,897 to 460, and resale volume rose, from 435 to 1,137. Nothing in this table shows a fixed pool of buyers moving from new launch to resale.
What this does not tell you
- What "N.A" means. The caveat records an address indicator with three values, HDB, private and N.A. Nothing in our sources documents what N.A denotes. The Method sets out what it looks like on this fence.
- Whether the buyer was an upgrader. An HDB address at the time of purchase is not the same as selling a flat to fund the purchase.
- Why the legs crossed three times. This note measures the pattern, not its cause.
- Anything about a specific project. These are shares and counts across the whole format, not any one development.
Method and data notes. Sale data to 22 August 2026.
The fence is area_sqft BETWEEN 400 AND 538, no bedroom filter, national, split by type_of_sale (New Sale / Resale), 2017 to 2025. Nine years, two legs, seven metrics: total sales, HDB, private and N.A counts, and three HDB shares that differ only in denominator: excluding N.A, including it, and N.A's own share of the total. The excluding-N.A share is the one carried in the body; the other two are published alongside it. This is a floor-area fence, not a bedroom fence: a shoebox and a one-bedroom unit overlap without either containing the other.
purchaser_indicator is URA REALIS's Purchaser Address Indicator, carried through unchanged. Nothing in the source states what N.A denotes, so all three denominators are published rather than one asserted as correct.
On the new-launch leg, N.A is not a small, steady residual the way it is on three-bedroom units: it peaks at 26.1% of new-launch sales in 2018, then collapses to 5.3% in 2019, a 20.8-point fall in a single year, before climbing back to 19.8% by 2025. Excluding it from the HDB share therefore excludes a different-sized slice of the population in every year, not a fixed one. Both choices are poor: excluding N.A moves the denominator under the reader's feet across the series; including it treats an unexplained code as a confirmed "not HDB, not private" sale. Excluding is the one printed here, as the less bad of the two, not because it resolves the problem, but because it keeps the share's meaning ("HDB's share of sales that identify a buyer type") stable even as the size of the excluded group is not.
Three year-cells sit under a 600-sale excluded-N.A denominator: shoebox new launch 2024 (397), shoebox resale 2019 (430) and shoebox new launch 2023 (571), and carry the same caution any small cell does.
Sale data to 22 August 2026.
More from Realila
- In 2017 half of new three-bedroom buyers came from an HDB address, and by 2025 it was under a third
Among new-launch three-bedroom buyers whose address type is known, 52.1% gave an HDB address in 2017 and 28.9% in 2025. Resale fell far less, from 36.9% to 27.2%, and the two legs crossed in 2022. The retreat is sharpest at the large end: four-bedroom new-launch fell 26.9 points against 13.5 for one-bedroom. And the leg the upgrader left is the one that returned less.
- A new 3 bedroom outside central rents for more per square foot than a 26-year-old one in prime, and that first became true in 2020
In 2025 a three-bedroom in a building under five years old rented for S$4.92 per square foot outside central, against S$4.02 for one over 26 years old in the core central region. In 2019 the comparison ran the other way. The age premium roughly doubled over nine years, from 1.25 times to 1.65, and in 2020 it grew large enough to overtake the thing everyone assumes decides rent.
- 95% of three-bedroom owners who sold since 2020 made money, and the median gain was $450,000
Of 27,663 three-bedroom condominiums bought and resold, 95.4% sold for more than the owner paid. The median gain was $450,000, or 33.7%, over a median hold of 9.6 years. That works out at 3.5% a year. The losses are concentrated: in the core central region one owner in ten sold below what they paid, and the median loss there was $320,000.
Every number in this post comes from Realila Research, dated to when it was true. For now we publish research notes from the platform to answer the community's questions; the platform itself opens to the public later.
Join the waitlist
Get each new note by email, and be first in when the research platform opens.
Ask for a research note
A question about the market, or data you would like to see.
We read every request. We cannot write a note on every one, but the ones we do write will appear on the Feed, and we will email you if yours does.