In the core central region, a shoebox is worth less in 2025 than in 2017. Outside central, the same size gained 26%.

A shoebox unit in the core central region (CCR) is worth slightly less per square foot in 2025 than it was in 2017. The same-sized unit in the outside central region (OCR) gained about a quarter over those eight years, and an OCR family-sized unit gained more than half. Where you bought has mattered more than how big. The rest of what we found about shoebox units in Singapore is on the shoebox units guide.

Our earlier piece showed that shoebox units gained less than family-sized units across the private market as a whole: 24% against 57% over eight years. That was a market-wide figure. Split it by region and the gap turns out to be very unevenly distributed.

One thing to know before the tables. Shoebox is 400–538 sqft, matching URA's 50 sqm threshold; family-sized is 1,000–1,500 sqft. Each size is measured on its own set of buildings, because CCR condominiums rarely contain both a 500 sqft unit and a 1,400 sqft one: requiring both would leave the CCR market almost unmeasurable. Our companion article on the premium measures inside single buildings instead, which is stricter but narrower. The numbers are not directly comparable between the two.

• CCR (core central)
• RCR (rest of central)
• OCR (outside central)

Key takeaways

• A CCR shoebox is worth 4.5% less per square foot than in 2017. An OCR one gained 26%. The eight-year picture
• Family-sized units gained in every region: 35% in the CCR, 52% in the rest of central region (RCR), 58% in the OCR. The CCR lagged in both size bands. The regional tables
• We are not dating a crossover year in any region: the CCR series rests on four to eleven developments a year and is too noisy to support one. What we are not claiming

Eight years, three regions

Core Central (CCR)

Year	Shoebox	Family	Gap	Developments (S / F)
2017	$2,151	$1,667	+29.0%	11 / 82
2018	$1,969	$1,858	+5.9%	6 / 66
2019	$1,801	$1,874	−3.9%	7 / 49
2020	$1,968	$1,773	+11.0%	4 / 45
2021	$1,837	$1,948	−5.7%	7 / 78
2022	$1,881	$2,115	−11.1%	6 / 53
2023	$1,975	$2,103	−6.1%	10 / 52
2024	$2,137	$2,175	−1.7%	10 / 62
2025	$2,055	$2,256	−8.9%	8 / 73

Rest of Central (RCR)

Year	Shoebox	Family	Gap	Developments (S / F)
2017	$1,504	$1,188	+26.7%	21 / 126
2018	$1,487	$1,297	+14.6%	33 / 118
2019	$1,514	$1,314	+15.2%	13 / 99
2020	$1,462	$1,260	+16.1%	21 / 94
2021	$1,472	$1,382	+6.5%	30 / 123
2022	$1,537	$1,518	+1.3%	21 / 107
2023	$1,676	$1,626	+3.1%	23 / 107
2024	$1,763	$1,707	+3.2%	26 / 112
2025	$1,739	$1,810	−3.9%	20 / 113

Outside Central (OCR)

Year	Shoebox	Family	Gap	Developments (S / F)
2017	$1,288	$925	+39.2%	22 / 190
2018	$1,327	$1,018	+30.4%	31 / 195
2019	$1,368	$1,045	+30.9%	22 / 186
2020	$1,298	$1,035	+25.4%	22 / 194
2021	$1,301	$1,101	+18.2%	35 / 209
2022	$1,424	$1,196	+19.1%	32 / 191
2023	$1,490	$1,321	+12.8%	32 / 191
2024	$1,636	$1,391	+17.6%	29 / 200
2025	$1,621	$1,459	+11.1%	23 / 192

The last column shows how many separate condominium projects each median is drawn from (shoebox first, family second). The more projects behind a number, the more reliable it is.

What eight years did

	Shoebox	Family
CCR	−4.5%	+35.3%
RCR	+15.6%	+52.4%
OCR	+25.9%	+57.7%

Compounded: CCR shoeboxes went backwards by about 0.6% a year. RCR shoeboxes grew 1.8% a year, OCR ones 2.9%. The family columns ran at 3.9%, 5.4% and 5.9%.

A CCR shoebox is the only cell in this grid that lost value. Not relative value: nominal value, before any account of inflation or holding costs. Over the same eight years an OCR family-sized unit gained 57.7%.

Two orderings appear, and they point the same way. The CCR lagged the OCR in both size bands. Small lagged large in all three regions. The effects compound, so the corners of the grid are a long way apart.

The gap column, and what we are not claiming

The gap is the shoebox premium: how much more, per square foot, a small unit fetched than a family-sized one in the same region. Every region starts firmly positive and every region ends far lower. In 2025 it is negative in both the CCR and the RCR; in the OCR it is still +11.1%, having lost roughly three quarters of its 2017 value.

We are not claiming a specific year in which each region crossed over. The CCR series rests on four to eleven developments a year, and its gap swings between +11.0% and −11.1% from one year to the next. That is too thin and too noisy to date an event. What it supports is a direction held across eight years, not a turning point.

The RCR and OCR series are better populated (13 to 35 shoebox developments and around a hundred to two hundred family ones) and both fall steadily.

What might explain it

Caveat data records the transaction, not the buyer. These are candidates to weigh, not findings.

Foreign buyer duty. Additional buyer's stamp duty for foreign buyers rose to 60% in April 2023. Foreign purchases concentrate in the CCR, and disproportionately in smaller units. If that demand thinned, the CCR shoebox tier is where it would show first. The timing fits and the geography fits. We have not tested it, and this data cannot.

Investor withdrawal more broadly. The ABSD changes of December 2021 and April 2023 applied nationwide, alongside the 2022–23 rate cycle. Shoebox units are disproportionately investment purchases in every region, which fits the size premium appearing everywhere rather than only in the CCR.

Entry price. CCR shoebox psf was already above $2,000 in 2017, a level the OCR lines have still not reached. A tier that starts expensive has less room to run, whatever the demand picture.

Where the growth was. OCR stock started cheapest and rose fastest in both bands, consistent with buyers moving outward as absolute prices climbed.

None of these are mutually exclusive, and this data cannot rank them.

What this does not tell you

• A crossover date. See above. The CCR series is too thin to date one.
• Your development. These are medians across a handful of projects in the CCR and a few dozen elsewhere. Individual projects diverge widely.
• Your unit. Floor, facing, stack, tenure and lease age all move psf within a single building.
• Who was buying. Not recorded, anywhere, by anyone.
• What happens next. Eight years of history. Not a forecast.

Method and data notes. Data to 17 July 2026.

Private non-landed resale caveats, condominium and apartment. Executive condominiums excluded, collective sales excluded. Market segments are URA's: CCR is the core central region, RCR the rest of central, OCR outside central.

Each size band is measured on its own fixed panel (developments with at least three transactions in that band in both the 2017–2019 and 2023–2025 windows) so every line describes the same buildings at both ends. Medians are taken across developments rather than pooled across transactions, which would let the changing mix of what sold masquerade as a change in price.

Because each band has its own panel, comparisons across regions within a single band are clean, while comparing the two bands within a region does not hold building quality constant. This piece is about the former.

2026 is excluded throughout: the partial year leaves as few as four developments in some cells. Data to 17 July 2026.

Updated 4 August 2026: shoebox is now defined as 400–538 sqft, matching URA's 50 sqm threshold, and the family band as 1,000–1,500 sqft, bringing this article into line with the rest of the series. Figures re-run. The regional pattern holds and is sharper than under the previous definition; the earlier claim that each region inverted in a datable year has been withdrawn, because the prime series is too thin to support it.