Do shoebox units still grow in value like bigger units? We measured inside the same condo.

Measured inside the same developments, shoebox units gained 18% over the last eight years while family-sized units gained 41%. Prices did not fall. They rose more slowly — and the gap is wider than the premium figures alone suggest.

We reported the collapse of the small-unit psf premium last week: measured inside the same development, compact units used to sell at a meaningful premium per square foot over larger ones, and that premium has compressed to nothing. The obvious follow-up, and the only one that matters if you own one, is whether this means small units are losing value.

They are not. They gained less — and the gap is wider than the premium figures alone imply.

The two lines

Same developments at both ends of the period, resale only, private non-landed. Within each, units of 400–600 sqft against units of 1,000–1,500 sqft. Median psf across those developments.

Year	400–600 sqft	1,000–1,500 sqft	Gap	Developments
2017	$1,329	$1,129	+18.8%	30
2018	$1,400	$1,225	+17.0%	35
2019	$1,368	$1,186	+13.8%	20
2020	$1,289	$1,158	+9.9%	31
2021	$1,394	$1,306	+8.4%	45
2022	$1,426	$1,353	+6.0%	40
2023	$1,494	$1,469	+4.7%	37
2024	$1,545	$1,533	+2.0%	34
2025	$1,574	$1,595	−1.8%	33
2026	$1,637	$1,663	−5.4%	10

Both columns climb. The right one climbs much faster. The gap closes in 2025 and inverts, and family-sized units now command the higher rate per square foot inside the same development.

The erosion is steady rather than sudden — it compresses in eight of the nine year-on-year steps. There is no single year where something broke.

What the gap costs

Compounded over 2017–2025, the shoebox line grew about 2.1% a year. The family line grew about 4.4%. The drag is roughly 2.3 percentage points a year, and it accumulates to 23 percentage points over the eight years.

Put in entry terms: $1,000,000 committed in 2017 and tracking the median for its tier would stand near $1,184,000 in the shoebox band and near $1,413,000 in the family band. Both are gains. They are not similar gains.

Two percentage points a year is close to invisible over a two-year hold — well inside what your specific stack, floor and transaction month will swing anyway. Over eight years it is the difference above. Whether it matters is a function of how long you hold, and nothing in this data speaks to that.

How small is small

The effect scales with size. Run the same test on each development's own smallest quarter of units — which in many projects is a modest two-bedder rather than a true shoebox — and that tier gained 41% over the same period, not 18%.

So there are three tiers, not two:

• 400–600 sqft: +18% over eight years
• Small relative to its own building: +41%
• 1,000–1,500 sqft: +41%

The underperformance is concentrated in genuine shoebox stock, not in small units generally. If you own something at the lower end of your development's size range but well above 600 sqft, the picture here is materially milder than the headline number.

Are they harder to sell?

Not on the evidence available. Counting transactions in the same developments:

Year	400–600 sqft	1,000–1,500 sqft	Ratio
2017	323	361	0.89
2018	285	473	0.60
2019	178	295	0.60
2020	233	411	0.57
2021	425	735	0.58
2022	326	491	0.66
2023	257	391	0.66
2024	271	478	0.57
2025	278	455	0.61
2026	105	217	0.48

After a higher 2017, the ratio settles into a 0.57–0.66 band and stays there for eight years, with no progressive decline. Its level carries no meaning — these developments simply contain fewer shoeboxes than family units, so the ratio reflects stock composition. Only the trend would tell you something, and there isn't one. Shoebox units keep changing hands at a steady rate relative to the larger units beside them.

An important limit. Transaction counts are not days on market. They tell you how many units changed hands, not how long each took or what was conceded to close. We do not hold listing durations, so this measures turnover, not ease. A market can look steady by count and feel slow to the person waiting.

Probable drivers, none proven

Caveat data records the transaction, never the buyer. Nobody can read intent from it, including us. These are candidates to weigh, not findings:

Investor withdrawal. Additional buyer's stamp duty rose sharply in December 2021 and again in April 2023, and financing costs climbed through 2022–23. Shoebox units are disproportionately investment purchases. If that buyer thinned, the tier they concentrated in would lose its bid first. The timing fits, and the size gradient above fits too — the effect is strongest in exactly the stock investors favoured. The mechanism is inferred, not observed.

Repricing of space. Larger units may be worth more per square foot than they were, for reasons unconnected to small ones — a preference shift after 2020 is the obvious candidate. Our earlier work found HDB moving the opposite way, which argues against a pure preference story without eliminating it.

Entry-price ceilings. As absolute prices rose, the buyer who once chose a shoebox on affordability grounds may now be priced toward resale HDB or further from the centre entirely. This one we have not tested.

These are not mutually exclusive, and this data cannot rank them.

What this does not tell you

• Your development. These are medians across 30-odd developments a year. Individual projects diverge widely.
• How long a sale takes. Turnover, not duration.
• Who is buying. Not recorded, anywhere, by anyone.
• What happens next. This is history, not a forecast, and nothing here should be read as one.

Method

Private non-landed resale caveats, condominium and apartment. Executive condominiums excluded, collective sales excluded. Bands compared within the same development only, so no part of the gap comes from location, tenure or project quality. A development enters a year only with at least three transactions in each band, and only developments present in both the 2017–2019 and 2023–2025 windows are included, so both columns describe the same buildings throughout. Medians are taken across developments rather than pooled across transactions, which would let the changing mix of what sold masquerade as a change in price.

Data to 17 July 2026. 2026 is a partial year and provisional.