HDB Resale Prices Q2 2026: The Median Held at S$604 psf. Here's What Moved Underneath.

In brief: HDB's Resale Price Index fell 0.3% in Q2 2026 to 202.8, a second straight decline and the first back-to-back drop in nearly seven years. Yet transaction volume rose 1.8%, and the median price per square foot did not move: S$604 in Q1, S$604 in Q2. All three are true at once, and the gaps between them are where the useful information lives. Realila Research went underneath the headline. Prices rose in central and mature towns, fell across most of the heartlands, softened in 3- and 5-room flats while Executives climbed, and the entire decline is concentrated in flats with less lease left. If you are buying, selling or upgrading this year, the segment you are in matters more than the index.

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What HDB reported

The Resale Price Index came in at 202.8 for Q2 2026, down 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, after Q1's 0.1% dip. That puts prices down about 0.4% across the first half of 2026, the first two-quarter decline since 2018-19. Set against the longer run it is a levelling rather than a correction: the index peaked at 203.7 in Q3 2025, sits within half a percent of that peak, and is almost exactly where it stood a year ago (202.9 in Q2 2025).

Volume told the opposite story. Resale transactions rose 1.8% to 6,396, from 6,285 in Q1, bringing the first half to 12,681 registrations. Against the year-ago quarter the market is still quieter: Q2 2025 recorded 7,102 transactions, so activity runs 9.9% below last year's pace.

Quarter	RPI	QoQ change	Transactions
Q2 2025	202.9	+0.9%	7,102
Q3 2025	203.7	+0.4%	7,221
Q4 2025	203.6	0.0%	5,256
Q1 2026	203.4	−0.1%	6,285
Q2 2026	202.8	−0.3%	6,396

Source: HDB.

Prices easing while volume rises is not a contradiction. It means buyers are active and deals are clearing, at slightly softer like-for-like levels. The rest of this brief shows where.

What a square foot actually cost

Metric	Q1 2026	Q2 2026
Median PSF	S$604	S$604
Average PSF	S$651	S$653
Median price	S$630,000	S$630,000
Average price	S$658,613	S$660,820

Source: HDB & Realila Research.

A falling index next to a flat median and a rising average has exactly one clean reading: the mix of what sold shifted upward while like-for-like values eased. More expensive flats, better located and with younger leases, made up more of Q2's volume, holding the headline steady over a genuine softening underneath.

Where prices actually moved: central up, heartland down

Median PSF by town, Q1 to Q2 2026, among towns with at least 100 transactions in both quarters.

Top 5 rising:

Town	Q1 → Q2 median PSF	Change
Toa Payoh	S$714 → S$753	+5.6%
Bukit Merah	S$777 → S$809	+4.1%
Clementi	S$631 → S$653	+3.5%
Queenstown	S$973 → S$1,000	+2.8%
Sembawang	S$611 → S$621	+1.6%

Top 5 declining:

Town	Q1 → Q2 median PSF	Change
Geylang	S$646 → S$608	−5.9%
Ang Mo Kio	S$597 → S$581	−2.7%
Bukit Panjang	S$573 → S$560	−2.2%
Bukit Batok	S$650 → S$641	−1.4%
Sengkang	S$637 → S$629	−1.3%

Twelve of the 21 qualifying towns declined. The risers are, almost without exception, central and mature estates, and Queenstown's median crossing the S$1,000-psf line is a first for any HDB town. HDB's own town tables tell the same story from the price side: the Q2 median for a 4-room flat reached S$1,019,000 in Toa Payoh, S$1,035,000 in Queenstown and S$1,194,400 in the Central Area, while heartland 4-room medians sit in the S$530,000 to S$680,000 range.

One row a national median will never show you: Tampines volume jumped from 448 to 530 transactions, the strongest demand growth in the market, while its price held flat.

All 21 towns: median PSF and volume, Q1 → Q2 2026

Town	Q1 PSF	Q2 PSF	Change	Q1 txns	Q2 txns
Toa Payoh	S$714	S$753	+5.6%	238	237
Bukit Merah	S$777	S$809	+4.1%	224	255
Clementi	S$631	S$653	+3.5%	124	136
Queenstown	S$973	S$1,000	+2.8%	182	197
Sembawang	S$611	S$621	+1.6%	238	184
Jurong East	S$546	S$554	+1.4%	125	116
Choa Chu Kang	S$517	S$520	+0.5%	262	252
Hougang	S$601	S$604	+0.4%	292	318
Woodlands	S$524	S$525	+0.2%	466	474
Punggol	S$699	S$697	−0.4%	402	399
Tampines	S$621	S$618	−0.4%	448	530
Pasir Ris	S$562	S$559	−0.5%	194	174
Jurong West	S$518	S$515	−0.6%	380	376
Yishun	S$571	S$565	−1.0%	406	374
Kallang	S$749	S$741	−1.0%	167	183
Bedok	S$595	S$587	−1.2%	301	307
Sengkang	S$637	S$629	−1.3%	421	433
Bukit Batok	S$650	S$641	−1.4%	336	369
Bukit Panjang	S$573	S$560	−2.2%	202	187
Ang Mo Kio	S$597	S$581	−2.7%	209	241
Geylang	S$646	S$608	−5.9%	167	171

Source: HDB & Realila Research. Towns with fewer than 100 transactions in either quarter are excluded.

By flat type: the consensus got Executives wrong

Market commentary expected the softening to concentrate in 5-room and Executive flats, which ran hardest in the boom. Half right:

Flat type	Q2 share	Median price Q1 → Q2	Change
4-room	43.7%	S$628,000 → S$630,000	+0.3%
3-room	24.1%	S$445,000 → S$440,000	−1.1%
5-room	22.9%	S$745,444 → S$738,000	−1.0%
Executive	6.1%	S$900,000 → S$919,000	+2.1%

Source: HDB & Realila Research.

5-room softened as predicted. Executives did the opposite, rising 2.1% to a S$919,000 median, and HDB's registration counts agree the segment stayed busy: 385 Executive resale applications in Q2 against 378 in Q1. The likely reason is structural rather than cyclical: HDB stopped building Executive flats in the late 1990s, so the segment's supply only shrinks, and it is precisely the flat a space-constrained multi-generation buyer cannot substitute.

The lease divergence: the whole decline lives in older flats

The most repeated fact about 2026 is supply: 13,480 flats reach their Minimum Occupation Period this year, nearly double 2025's 6,973. The intuitive read is that a wave of young flats should soften young-flat prices. The data says the opposite happened:

Remaining lease	Q2 volume vs Q1	Median PSF Q1 → Q2	Q2 median price
90+ years	1,103 → 1,198	S$734 → S$751 (+2.3%)	S$730,000
75-89 years	~flat	S$690 → S$690	S$675,000
60-74 years	~flat	S$553 → S$549	S$650,000
Under 60 years	~flat	S$559 → S$557	S$467,000

Source: HDB & Realila Research.

More young-MOP flats sold, at higher prices. Every band at 75 years and below was flat or down. The "market decline" is not really a market decline. It is a lease-quality divergence: demand is chasing lease, absorbing the enlarged MOP supply at a premium, while the softening is carried entirely by older stock. The gap between the youngest band and the 60-74 band now stands at roughly S$200 psf, a 27% lease discount, and it widened this quarter.

Million-dollar flats: a record quarter inside a declining index

By Realila Research's count, 491 flats changed hands at S$1 million or above in Q2, up from 411 in Q1 and the highest single-quarter count on record, at about 7.7% of the quarter's 6,396 registered transactions. An index falling while record numbers of million-dollar flats transact is not a contradiction. It is the same divergence as everything above: the top of the market separating from the middle.

The rental market moved the same direction as volume

Approved applications to rent out HDB flats rose 4.9% to 10,002 in Q2, and the total stock of rented-out flats edged up to 58,855. Rental demand rising alongside resale volume, in the same quarter the price index eased, reinforces the core read: this is not a market losing its buyers. Median rents in Q2 ranged from around S$2,700 to S$3,100 for a heartland 3-room to over S$5,100 for a 5-room in the Central Area, town by town in HDB's tables.

What this means for your decision

If you are selling. Which side of the divergence is your flat on? In Geylang, Ang Mo Kio or Bukit Panjang, comparable prices moved against you this quarter. Price to current transactions, not January's, or expect to sit. In Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah or Clementi, comps moved up and underpricing is the bigger risk. And if your remaining lease is under 75 years, the softening is concentrated in your segment even where your town's headline held.

If you are buying. The negotiating room opened in heartland 3-room and 5-room stock, and the tables above tell you where. The real decision is the lease premium: about S$200 psf separates a young flat from a 60-something-year one. Whether that premium is worth paying depends on your holding horizon, not on the market's mood.

If you are upgrading. Executive strength and private-market moderation are pulling in your favour, but the binding number is usually stamp duty. Before committing to a buy-first or sell-first sequence, compute your exact BSD and ABSD position with the Realila stamp duty calculator. It is free and takes a minute.

What to watch next

Whether Q3 makes it three quarters: two is a pattern, three is a trend. Whether the lease divergence keeps widening, which would mark this as structural rather than cyclical. And October's BTO exercise, where HDB will launch about 7,960 flats across Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun, with Community Care Apartments in Toa Payoh. Buyers intending to apply need a valid HFE letter, with documents in by 15 September 2026.

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This brief is general market research, not financial advice, and figures are dated to the periods they cover.

Data and methodology

Analysis by Realila Research on registered HDB resale transactions through June 2026. Contains information from the HDB resale transactions dataset accessed via data.gov.sg, made available under the Singapore Open Data Licence v1. Records withdrawn at source after publication are excluded from all statistics. Town figures are raw medians of what transacted: they reflect both price movement and the mix of flats sold within each town, and are shown only for towns with at least 100 transactions in both quarters. Smaller towns are excluded rather than estimated. The Resale Price Index, official transaction counts, rental figures and town median price tables are HDB's; official counts are of registered resale applications and differ slightly from the public transaction dataset. The million-dollar flat count is Realila Research's, computed on the public transaction dataset. Remaining-lease bands are computed from the lease stated at transaction.